Lobofan2003 Bracketology

In an unprecedented move, the NCAA cancelled all Winter and Spring championships including the NCAA Men's and Women's basketball tournament due to the fears of the spread of coronavirus as of Thursday 3/12/2020. While, as a college basketball fan and bracketologist I am throughly disappointed for the players, teams and fans, I understand the rationale behind the decision and I believe community health, player health, etc. is most important.

For fun, I decided to post one final bracket. If they had decided to play with no fans and wanted to limit travel (especially in the 1st and 2nd rounds) I believe the bracket would've looked like this, with many teams shifting up/down a seed line; let me know what you think:

Here is the true list so that you can see all the movement of seed lines from this seed list to the final bracket:

1 Kansas

1 Gonzaga

1 Baylor

1 Dayton

2 San Diego State

2 Florida State

2 Creighton

2 Kentucky

3 Duke

3 Villanova

3 Michigan State

3 Seton Hall

4 Maryland

4 Oregon

4 Louisville

4 Wisconsin

5 Auburn

5 Ohio State

5 Butler

5 Penn State

6 Brigham Young

6 Iowa

6 West Virginia

6 Michigan

7 Illinois

7 Virginia

7 Arizona

7 Providence

8 St. Mary's

8 Houston

8 LSU

8 Colorado

9 Southern California

9 Arizona State

9 Florida

9 Indiana

10 Oklahoma

10 Marquette

10 Rutgers

10 Utah State

11 Cincinnati

11 Texas Tech

11 Ucla

11 Richmond

11 E. Tennessee State

12 Wichita State

12 North Carolina State

12 Yale

12 Stephen F. Austin

12 Liberty

13 Akron

13 Vermont

13 New Mexico State

13 North Texas

14 Belmont

14 Bradley

14 California Irvine

14 Hofstra

15 Eastern Washington

15 North Dakota State

15 Arkansas-Little Rock

15 Northern Kentucky

16 Winthrop

16 Siena

16 Boston University

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Robert Morris

16 North Carolina Central

For games played through 3/9:

More movement is likely on a daily basis going forward. Will likely have another update around Friday and then a final bracket on Sunday.

Thanks for following along!

For games played through 3/1:

Full Seed List:

1 Kansas

1 Baylor

1 Gonzaga

1 San Diego State

2 Dayton

2 Seton Hall

2 Maryland

2 Florida State

3 Creighton

3 Villanova

3 Duke

3 Kentucky

4 Louisville

4 Oregon

4 Michigan State

4 Auburn

5 Penn State

5 Wisconsin

5 Butler

5 Ohio State

6 Colorado

6 Brigham Young

6 Iowa

6 Michigan

7 West Virginia

7 Marquette

7 Arizona

7 Illinois

8 LSU

8 Houston

8 St. Mary's

8 Virginia

9 Oklahoma

9 Florida

9 Indiana

9 Providence

10 Arizona State

10 Texas Tech

10 Xavier

10 Southern California

11 Stanford

11 Wichita State

11 E. Tennessee State

11 Richmond

11 Utah State

12 Rutgers

12 North Carolina State

12 Northern Iowa

12 Yale

12 Stephen F. Austin

13 Akron

13 Liberty

13 Vermont

13 North Texas

14 California Irvine

14 Belmont

14 New Mexico State

14 Colgate

15 Hofstra

15 Wright State

15 Montana

15 Arkansas-Little Rock

16 North Dakota State

16 Radford

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Robert Morris

16 Siena

16 North Carolina Central

For games played thru 2/27/2020

Full Seed List:

1 Kansas

1 Baylor

1 Gonzaga

1 San Diego State

2 Dayton

2 Florida State

2 Maryland

2 Duke

3 Creighton

3 Seton Hall

3 Villanova

3 Kentucky

4 Louisville

4 Oregon

4 Auburn

4 Michigan State

5 Butler

5 Penn State

5 Marquette

5 Colorado

6 West Virginia

6 Iowa

6 Michigan

6 Brigham Young

7 Wisconsin

7 Arizona

7 LSU

7 Ohio State

8 Florida

8 Houston

8 St. Mary's

8 Illinois

9 Texas Tech

9 Virginia

9 Indiana

9 Arizona State

10 Oklahoma

10 Wichita State

10 Xavier

10 Southern California

11 Richmond

11 Utah State

11 E. Tennessee State

11 Stanford

11 Cincinnati

12 Rutgers

12 Rhode Island

12 Northern Iowa

12 Liberty

12 Yale

13 Stephen F. Austin

13 Vermont

13 North Texas

13 Belmont

14 California Irvine

14 Hofstra

14 Northern Colorado

14 New Mexico State

15 South Dakota State

15 Colgate

15 Wright State

15 Bowling Green

16 Arkansas-Little Rock

16 Radford

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Siena

16 North Carolina Central

We are three weeks from Selection Sunday and I have been distracted with work and other things to prevent me from doing previous bracket posts but I hope to post a few times over these next few weeks.

Full Seed List:

1 Kansas

1 Baylor

1 Gonzaga

1 San Diego State

2 Dayton

2 Duke

2 Maryland

2 Louisville

3 Florida State

3 Seton Hall

3 Kentucky

3 Villanova

4 Butler

4 Creighton

4 Auburn

4 Oregon

5 Michigan State

5 Colorado

5 West Virginia

5 LSU

6 Arizona

6 Penn State

6 Michigan

6 Iowa

7 Houston

7 Marquette

7 Brigham Young

7 Wisconsin

8 Ohio State

8 Florida

8 Texas Tech

8 Arizona State

9 Indiana

9 St. Mary's

9 Illinois

9 Virginia

10 Wichita State

10 North Carolina State

10 Oklahoma

10 Richmond

11 Xavier

11 Rhode Island

11 Cincinnati

11 Utah State

11 Rutgers

11 Southern California

12 E. Tennessee State

12 Northern Iowa

12 Liberty

12 Yale

13 Akron

13 Vermont

13 Stephen F. Austin

13 North Texas

14 Belmont

14 California Irvine

14 Hofstra

14 New Mexico State

15 Colgate

15 South Dakota State

15 Montana

15 Wright State

16 Arkansas-Little Rock

16 Radford

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

16 Siena

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Norfolk State

1 Duke

1 Virginia

1 Kentucky

1 Gonzaga

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

2 Tennessee

2 Michigan

3 Houston

3 LSU

3 Florida State

3 Kansas

4 Texas Tech

4 Purdue

4 Wisconsin

4 Kansas State

5 Virginia Tech

5 Auburn

5 Iowa State

5 Maryland

6 Cincinnati

6 Villanova

6 Marquette

6 Mississippi State

7 Buffalo

7 Wofford

7 Nevada

7 Louisville

8 Baylor

8 Iowa

8 UCF

8 Utah State

9 Mississippi

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Seton Hall

9 Minnesota

10 Syracuse

10 Oklahoma

10 Washington

10 Florida

11 Temple

11 Ohio State

11 Arizona State

11 St. John's

11 TCU

11 Oregon

12 St. Mary's

12 Murray State

12 New Mexico State

12 Liberty

13 Northeastern

13 California Irvine

13 Vermont

13 Old Dominion

14 Montana

14 Georgia State

14 Yale

14 Saint Louis

15 Northern Kentucky

15 Colgate

15 Bradley

15 Gardner-Webb

16 Prairie View A&M

16 North Dakota State

16 Abilene Christian

16 Iona

16 North Carolina Central

16 Fairleigh Dickinson

The Mountain West tournament is getting underway here in Las Vegas, it and the Pac-12 Tournament are the reasons I go to Las Vegas every year. This year there are two clear favorites and a couple other teams who could win it, but if you are looking for a darkhorse outside the Top 4 seeds you are unlikely to find one.

Player to Watch: Neemias Queta - Utah State; the big for Utah State is a huge shot blocking presence at the rim and some day is a future NBA lottery pick I believe. If he is knocking down shots in the post and altering opponents' shots the Utah State Aggies are a tough out.

Storyline: Everyone wants to see a Utah State/Nevada rematch in the final after the postgame incidents in Logan. Will the top seeds oblige and make it to the final.

Predictions: The winner is coming from the Top 4 seeds; yes Air Force and New Mexico each have two wins against the Top 4 but the inconsistently, especially of the Lobos, have killed them all year. As a biased fan of the team who follows them closely, I have no idea how they are going to perform.

I have gone back and forth on this all week, but I like SDSU to upset Nevada in the semis as they did last year and fans won't get the rematch of Nevada/Utah State like they want, in fact I am picking the Aztecs to win their 2nd consecutive Mountain West tournament. The Aztecs are loaded with talent, including future NBA player Jalen McDaniels.

Round-by-round picks:

1st round

Boise

UNM

Air Force

Quarterfinals

Nevada

SDSU

Utah State

Fresno

Semifinals

SDSU

Utah State

Final

SDSU

As mentioned, I am in Vegas ("LAS Vegas, please") for the MW and Pac-12 Tournaments. My background with the Pac-12 is that I grew up in Washington and watched quite a bit of Pac 12 sports in my childhood; I was a Huskies fan as a kid. I have many friends that went to UW and still pull for them, but I am going to completely unbiased in my analysis here.

Player to Watch: Matisse Thybulle; Washington - The back-to-back Pac 12 defensive player of the year is a nightmare for the other team. If the Huskies are going to win this tournament it is going to be because they lock down in the 2-3 zone

Storyline: This conference tournament is wide open. Despite the fact that Washington won the league regular season by multiple games, they struggled down the stretch losing to Cal and Oregon. The other storyline from this Tournament is the downward trajectory of the league and how many teams will make the NCAA tournament. Right now it looks like 2 teams from the Pac-12 will make the tournament with Washington in and Arizona State on the bubble. If one of the Top 2 doesn't win the conference tournament, could the league get 3 teams in? If Washington wins and Arizona State bows out early, could the Pac-12 be a 1-bid league?

Predictions: Good luck predicting this tournament. I am confident that chaos will happen. I won't be shocked if UW wins the tournament, but I expect the winner to come from the field if you are asking me to take UW, Arizona State or the field. Colorado and Oregon come into the tournament as the hottest teams in the league (although you could argue 12th place Cal is in that group as well with wins over UW and Stanford). I believe that coaching will be the difference in this tournament and I am not going to bet against Dana Altman, give me Oregon to win the tournament.

Round-by-Round:

1st Round

Arizona

Colorado

UCLA

Oregon

Quarterfinals

Washington

Colorado

UCLA

Oregon

Semifinals

Washington

Oregon

Finals

Oregon

Here is my updated bracket based on games played through Sunday 3/10. Keep in mind as some guidelines that teams with an RPI over 70 rarely made the Tournament (which I believe will translate over to the NET rankings) and the worst overall record for a team to make the field as an at-large is 19-15 (Vanderbilt 2017, Alabama 2018 ). Conference record is not a factor given to the Committee on their "team sheets" which give all of the team's metrics.

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Gonzaga

1 Kentucky

1 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

2 Duke

2 Tennessee

2 LSU

3 Michigan

3 Houston

3 Texas Tech

3 Purdue

4 Kansas

4 Kansas State

4 Florida State

4 Wisconsin

5 Virginia Tech

5 Maryland

5 Marquette

5 Mississippi State

6 Nevada

6 Villanova

6 Auburn

6 Buffalo

7 Cincinnati

7 Wofford

7 Iowa State

7 Louisville

8 Baylor

8 UCF

8 Iowa

8 Syracuse

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Oklahoma

9 Utah State

9 Washington

10 Mississippi

10 Seton Hall

10 St. John's

10 Temple

11 Minnesota

11 TCU

11 Arizona State

11 Clemson

12 Ohio State

12 North Carolina State

12 Belmont

12 Florida

12 Murray State

12 New Mexico State

13 Liberty

13 Hofstra

13 California Irvine

13 Vermont

14 Old Dominion

14 Montana

14 Georgia State

14 Harvard

15 Wright State

15 Colgate

15 Omaha

15 Bradley

16 Sam Houston State

16 Gardner-Webb

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Iona

16 Norfolk State

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

Here is my latest bracket based on games played through Wednesday 3/6/19. Lots of movement around seed lines for the bubble teams, but only one change in the at-large teams as Clemson falls out and Temple barely squeaks in (their resumes are so similar it is splitting hairs between the two).

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Gonzaga

1 Tennessee

1 Duke

2 Kentucky

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan

2 Michigan State

3 LSU

3 Texas Tech

3 Purdue

3 Houston

4 Kansas

4 Florida State

4 Kansas State

4 Wisconsin

5 Virginia Tech

5 Maryland

5 Marquette

5 Villanova

6 Mississippi State

6 Cincinnati

6 Iowa State

6 Nevada

7 Buffalo

7 Louisville

7 Wofford

7 Auburn

8 Baylor

8 Iowa

8 Oklahoma

8 Syracuse

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Washington

9 St. John's

9 UCF

10 Utah State

10 Seton Hall

10 Florida

10 Ohio State

11 Mississippi

11 Texas

11 Minnesota

11 Alabama

12 Belmont

12 TCU

12 Arizona State

12 Temple

12 North Carolina State

12 Lipscomb

13 New Mexico State

13 Yale

13 Hofstra

13 Old Dominion

14 Vermont

14 California Irvine

14 South Dakota State

14 Georgia Southern

15 Montana

15 Loyola-Chicago

15 Wright State

15 Colgate

16 Sam Houston State

16 Iona

16 Campbell

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Norfolk State

16 St. Francis (Pa.)