Lobofan2003 Bracketology

1 Duke

1 Virginia

1 Kentucky

1 Gonzaga

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

2 Tennessee

2 Michigan

3 Houston

3 LSU

3 Florida State

3 Kansas

4 Texas Tech

4 Purdue

4 Wisconsin

4 Kansas State

5 Virginia Tech

5 Auburn

5 Iowa State

5 Maryland

6 Cincinnati

6 Villanova

6 Marquette

6 Mississippi State

7 Buffalo

7 Wofford

7 Nevada

7 Louisville

8 Baylor

8 Iowa

8 UCF

8 Utah State

9 Mississippi

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Seton Hall

9 Minnesota

10 Syracuse

10 Oklahoma

10 Washington

10 Florida

11 Temple

11 Ohio State

11 Arizona State

11 St. John's

11 TCU

11 Oregon

12 St. Mary's

12 Murray State

12 New Mexico State

12 Liberty

13 Northeastern

13 California Irvine

13 Vermont

13 Old Dominion

14 Montana

14 Georgia State

14 Yale

14 Saint Louis

15 Northern Kentucky

15 Colgate

15 Bradley

15 Gardner-Webb

16 Prairie View A&M

16 North Dakota State

16 Abilene Christian

16 Iona

16 North Carolina Central

16 Fairleigh Dickinson

The Mountain West tournament is getting underway here in Las Vegas, it and the Pac-12 Tournament are the reasons I go to Las Vegas every year. This year there are two clear favorites and a couple other teams who could win it, but if you are looking for a darkhorse outside the Top 4 seeds you are unlikely to find one.

Player to Watch: Neemias Queta - Utah State; the big for Utah State is a huge shot blocking presence at the rim and some day is a future NBA lottery pick I believe. If he is knocking down shots in the post and altering opponents' shots the Utah State Aggies are a tough out.

Storyline: Everyone wants to see a Utah State/Nevada rematch in the final after the postgame incidents in Logan. Will the top seeds oblige and make it to the final.

Predictions: The winner is coming from the Top 4 seeds; yes Air Force and New Mexico each have two wins against the Top 4 but the inconsistently, especially of the Lobos, have killed them all year. As a biased fan of the team who follows them closely, I have no idea how they are going to perform.

I have gone back and forth on this all week, but I like SDSU to upset Nevada in the semis as they did last year and fans won't get the rematch of Nevada/Utah State like they want, in fact I am picking the Aztecs to win their 2nd consecutive Mountain West tournament. The Aztecs are loaded with talent, including future NBA player Jalen McDaniels.

Round-by-round picks:

1st round

Boise

UNM

Air Force

Quarterfinals

Nevada

SDSU

Utah State

Fresno

Semifinals

SDSU

Utah State

Final

SDSU

As mentioned, I am in Vegas ("LAS Vegas, please") for the MW and Pac-12 Tournaments. My background with the Pac-12 is that I grew up in Washington and watched quite a bit of Pac 12 sports in my childhood; I was a Huskies fan as a kid. I have many friends that went to UW and still pull for them, but I am going to completely unbiased in my analysis here.

Player to Watch: Matisse Thybulle; Washington - The back-to-back Pac 12 defensive player of the year is a nightmare for the other team. If the Huskies are going to win this tournament it is going to be because they lock down in the 2-3 zone

Storyline: This conference tournament is wide open. Despite the fact that Washington won the league regular season by multiple games, they struggled down the stretch losing to Cal and Oregon. The other storyline from this Tournament is the downward trajectory of the league and how many teams will make the NCAA tournament. Right now it looks like 2 teams from the Pac-12 will make the tournament with Washington in and Arizona State on the bubble. If one of the Top 2 doesn't win the conference tournament, could the league get 3 teams in? If Washington wins and Arizona State bows out early, could the Pac-12 be a 1-bid league?

Predictions: Good luck predicting this tournament. I am confident that chaos will happen. I won't be shocked if UW wins the tournament, but I expect the winner to come from the field if you are asking me to take UW, Arizona State or the field. Colorado and Oregon come into the tournament as the hottest teams in the league (although you could argue 12th place Cal is in that group as well with wins over UW and Stanford). I believe that coaching will be the difference in this tournament and I am not going to bet against Dana Altman, give me Oregon to win the tournament.

Round-by-Round:

1st Round

Arizona

Colorado

UCLA

Oregon

Quarterfinals

Washington

Colorado

UCLA

Oregon

Semifinals

Washington

Oregon

Finals

Oregon

Here is my updated bracket based on games played through Sunday 3/10. Keep in mind as some guidelines that teams with an RPI over 70 rarely made the Tournament (which I believe will translate over to the NET rankings) and the worst overall record for a team to make the field as an at-large is 19-15 (Vanderbilt 2017, Alabama 2018 ). Conference record is not a factor given to the Committee on their "team sheets" which give all of the team's metrics.

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Gonzaga

1 Kentucky

1 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

2 Duke

2 Tennessee

2 LSU

3 Michigan

3 Houston

3 Texas Tech

3 Purdue

4 Kansas

4 Kansas State

4 Florida State

4 Wisconsin

5 Virginia Tech

5 Maryland

5 Marquette

5 Mississippi State

6 Nevada

6 Villanova

6 Auburn

6 Buffalo

7 Cincinnati

7 Wofford

7 Iowa State

7 Louisville

8 Baylor

8 UCF

8 Iowa

8 Syracuse

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Oklahoma

9 Utah State

9 Washington

10 Mississippi

10 Seton Hall

10 St. John's

10 Temple

11 Minnesota

11 TCU

11 Arizona State

11 Clemson

12 Ohio State

12 North Carolina State

12 Belmont

12 Florida

12 Murray State

12 New Mexico State

13 Liberty

13 Hofstra

13 California Irvine

13 Vermont

14 Old Dominion

14 Montana

14 Georgia State

14 Harvard

15 Wright State

15 Colgate

15 Omaha

15 Bradley

16 Sam Houston State

16 Gardner-Webb

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Iona

16 Norfolk State

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

Here is my latest bracket based on games played through Wednesday 3/6/19. Lots of movement around seed lines for the bubble teams, but only one change in the at-large teams as Clemson falls out and Temple barely squeaks in (their resumes are so similar it is splitting hairs between the two).

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Gonzaga

1 Tennessee

1 Duke

2 Kentucky

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan

2 Michigan State

3 LSU

3 Texas Tech

3 Purdue

3 Houston

4 Kansas

4 Florida State

4 Kansas State

4 Wisconsin

5 Virginia Tech

5 Maryland

5 Marquette

5 Villanova

6 Mississippi State

6 Cincinnati

6 Iowa State

6 Nevada

7 Buffalo

7 Louisville

7 Wofford

7 Auburn

8 Baylor

8 Iowa

8 Oklahoma

8 Syracuse

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Washington

9 St. John's

9 UCF

10 Utah State

10 Seton Hall

10 Florida

10 Ohio State

11 Mississippi

11 Texas

11 Minnesota

11 Alabama

12 Belmont

12 TCU

12 Arizona State

12 Temple

12 North Carolina State

12 Lipscomb

13 New Mexico State

13 Yale

13 Hofstra

13 Old Dominion

14 Vermont

14 California Irvine

14 South Dakota State

14 Georgia Southern

15 Montana

15 Loyola-Chicago

15 Wright State

15 Colgate

16 Sam Houston State

16 Iona

16 Campbell

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Norfolk State

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

Here is my updated bracket based on games played through Friday 3/1. Biggest winners this week were Virginia Tech (Win over Duke), Baylor (up 1 seed) and Minnesota (moved out of 1st Four). Biggest losers were Washington (losing to Cal-down 2 seeds), Texas/Arizona State (both inching closer to moving from Bubble In to Bubble Out) and Temple (loss knocked them out of bracket)

Full Seed List

1 Virginia

1 Duke

1 Kentucky

1 Gonzaga

2 Michigan State

2 North Carolina

2 Tennessee

2 Michigan

3 Houston

3 LSU

3 Kansas

3 Purdue

4 Texas Tech

4 Marquette

4 Florida State

4 Mississippi State

5 Virginia Tech

5 Maryland

5 Wisconsin

5 Iowa State

6 Villanova

6 Nevada

6 Kansas State

6 Cincinnati

7 Iowa

7 Buffalo

7 Baylor

7 Louisville

8 Wofford

8 Auburn

8 Mississippi

8 Ohio State

9 Virginia Commonwealth

9 Syracuse

9 Florida

9 Washington

10 St. John's

10 Oklahoma

10 TCU

10 Alabama

11 Seton Hall

11 Texas

11 Minnesota

11 Arizona State

12 UCF

12 North Carolina State

12 Belmont

12 Utah State

12 Clemson

12 Lipscomb

13 New Mexico State

13 Yale

13 Hofstra

13 Old Dominion

14 Vermont

14 California Irvine

14 South Dakota State

14 Texas State-San Marcos

15 Montana

15 Northern Kentucky

15 Loyola-Chicago

15 Radford

16 Bucknell

16 Sam Houston State

16 Iona

16 Prairie View A&M

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

16 Norfolk State

Here is my updated bracket based on games played through Sunday Febuary 24th:

Full Seed List:

1 Duke

1 Virginia

1 Kentucky

1 Gonzaga

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

2 Tennessee

2 Michigan

3 Houston

3 Marquette

3 Texas Tech

3 Purdue

4 Kansas

4 LSU

4 Mississippi State

4 Wisconsin

5 Maryland

5 Florida State

5 Iowa State

5 Kansas State

6 Villanova

6 Nevada

6 Virginia Tech

6 Louisville

7 Iowa

7 Cincinnati

7 Washington

7 Buffalo

8 Baylor

8 Wofford

8 Mississippi

8 St. John's

9 Auburn

9 Syracuse

9 Ohio State

9 Virginia Commonwealth

10 TCU

10 Texas

10 Alabama

10 Oklahoma

11 Temple

11 Florida

11 Seton Hall

11 Arizona State

12 Minnesota

12 UCF

12 Utah State

12 Clemson

12 Lipscomb

12 Belmont

13 Hofstra

13 New Mexico State

13 Vermont

13 Yale

14 Old Dominion

14 California Irvine

14 South Dakota State

14 Montana

15 Texas State-San Marcos

15 Radford

15 Loyola-Chicago

15 Wright State

16 Bucknell

16 Sam Houston State

16 Rider

16 Prairie View A&M

16 St. Francis (Pa.)

16 Norfolk State

Here is my first full bracket of the season based on the Committee's Top 16 seeds (#1-4 by region) released earlier this afternoon:

Full Seed List prior to today's games:

1 Duke

1 Tennessee

1 Virginia

1 Gonzaga

2 Kentucky

2 Michigan

2 North Carolina

2 Michigan State

3 Purdue

3 Kansas

3 Houston

3 Marquette

4 Iowa State

4 Nevada

4 Louisville

4 Wisconsin

5 Villanova

5 LSU

5 Texas Tech

5 Virginia Tech

6 Iowa

6 Mississippi State

6 Maryland

6 Kansas State

7 Cincinnati

7 Florida State

7 Washington

7 Buffalo

8 Baylor

8 Auburn

8 Oklahoma

8 St. John's

9 Ohio State

9 Alabama

9 Syracuse

9 Wofford

10 Texas

10 Mississippi

10 Minnesota

10 TCU

11 Seton Hall

11 Lipscomb

11 Arizona State

11 Virginia Commonwealth

11 Temple

12 UCF

12 Utah State

12 Belmont

12 Davidson

12 Hofstra

13 New Mexico State

13 Vermont

13 Yale

13 Old Dominion

14 South Dakota State

14 Montana

14 California Irvine

14 Northern Kentucky

15 Bowling Green

15 Texas State-San Marcos

15 Radford

15 Loyola-Chicago

16 Bucknell

16 Sam Houston State

16 Rider

16 Prairie View A&M

16 Robert Morris

16 Norfolk State

Here are my top 16 seeds in advance of the committee's reveal of their Top 16 seeds (#1-4 seed in each region) based on NET rankings and team sheets through games played on 2/7 and their regions:

1 Duke (East)

1 Virginia (South)

1 Tennessee (Midwest)

1 Gonzaga (West)

2 Michigan (South)

2 Kentucky (East)

2 Michigan State (Midwest)

2 North Carolina (West)

3 Kansas (Midwest)

3 Wisconsin (West)

3 Marquette (South)

3 Purdue (East)

4 Houston (West)

4 Villanova (East)

4 Nevada (Midwest)

4 Iowa State (South)

Now that we are near the end of January, in the middle of conference play, this is the point in the season where you called be more confident in using the RPI as a metric as a bracketologist and that there wouldn't be wild swings in the RPI rankings every night. Yes, the RPI was a rankings system with obvious flaws for simplicity, but they were at least a way to get a relative idea to get at the relative strength of a team.

Now that the NCAA NET rankings are being used, how does a team's NET ranking vs. their RPI ranking compare at this point in the season and are there any obvious bugs or flaws in the NET rankings?

NET/RPI RANKINGS

Remember that the formula for NET includes things like scoring margin (capped at 10 per game), offensive/defensive efficiency rankings, quality of opponents played, road wins, etc. (Reminder that the RPI did not control for scoring margin and efficiency rankings but did attempt to control for Strength of Schedule and additional weighting to road wins)

As such, here are the Top teams in NET and RPI as of 1/29/19 from the NCAA website and realtimerpi.com 

From the above rankings you can see that three teams (Nebraska, NC State and Florida) have seen a large bump in their NET rankings vs. their corresponding RPI rankings. Other college basketball analytics gurus have surmised, by looking at efficiency rankings, that the reason for many of these bumps is from an increase in offensive efficiency rankings from blow outs against teams that would negatively bring down the team's overall strength of schedule. NC State is the most glaring example of this, their SOS is 352 but they have a very strong NET ranking based on their efficieny rankings.

The fact that offensive efficiency can be influenced by scoring a lot of points in blowouts against lesser competition points to what some critics call a flaw in the rankings that allows the NET to be "manipulated" by running up the score against lower competition. To be sure, critics of the RPI said that it could be manipulated as well by scheduling lots of teams with middle of the road competition on the road/in neutral locations and encouraging others in your conference to do that as well.

As the first year of the NET rankings I am sure that adjustments will be made in future years to address some of these concerns. Time will tell whether or not teams that would not normally have been considered due to their SOS/RPI are now considered based on their NET rankings and how much it will influence the Committee. Keep in mind that the NET is only one ranking system that Committee members can use, they also have access to KenPom, ESPN's BPI, RPI and other ranking systems so I am hopeful that the Committee will be balanced in their selection approach this year.

One thing is for certain, bracketologists are in uncharted territory this year!