Lobofan2003 Bracketology

NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is the new metric that the NCAA will use, replacing RPI, in order to evaluate a team's record and performance in relation to other teams in order to evaluate for inclusion as an at-large and for seeding within the NCAA tournament beginning with this season (2018-19).

In an effort to increase transparency, the NCAA released the first NET rankings yesterday based on their mathmatical formula used to calculate a team's performance based on YTD results.

What is different about the NET from RPI?

I liken the NET to RPI on steriods. It uses the same basic concept of the RPI, who did you play/where and who did you beat, to determine essentially a strength of record metric. However, in an attempt to incorporate more predictative metrics into the analysis, NET incorporates other metrics based strength of schedule by including offensive/defensive efficiency metrics and margin of victory (capped at 10 points) into the mathmatical evaluation formula.

What will the NET be used for?

We know some of how the NET will be used but we don't know other parts of the equation, like how it compares to previous benchmarks we bracketologists used with the RPI.

What we do know: Teams will be ranked from 1-353 based on the mathematical formula used to calculate NET. The NET will replace the RPI in determining "Quadrant I", "Quadrant II" wins/losses, etc. Instead of a Top 30 RPI home/Top 50 RPI Neutral/Top 75 RPI Road win equaling a Quadrant I win, the NET rankings will be used to divide wins into the different quadrants

What we don't know: How each of the factors in the NET formula will be weighted - This is the biggest miss in the NCAA's efforts to be transparent. We don't know how each of the factors (strength of schedule, weighted winning percentage based on road/neutral/home wins & losses, offensive/defensive efficiency and margin of victory) will be weighted in the NET formula. We also don't know if we can rely on some of the boundaries we have used for considering teams based on RPI can be used as we have in the past. For example, since the RPI formula was tweaked in 2005, only one team has made the at-large field with an RPI worse than 70 (last year-Arizona State, RPI 73). If team has a NET ranking in the 80's can we leave them out of our serious consideration set for an at-large berth when making our bracket projections? I don't know the answer to that question, I think we are going to need more data points of the NET to be able to compare to the traditional RPI rankings/formula and see how they differ as we progress through the season.

Early Criticism of the NET rankings

As soon as the initial NET rankings from the NCAA came out yesterday, we began to hear all kinds of criticism with how far "off" some of the rankings seemed. People forget that the RPI is way off this early in the season as well. We need more data points (games played) before we can evaluate how accurate this new ranking methodology really is. Let's all claim down people; until we get into conference play in January it is all too early to be taking these rankings with anything more than a grain of salt.

Here is my final bracket predictions, it took some time on the airplane flight home from the MWC and Pac-12 tournaments this weekend in Vegas, but I believe that I should have this down, really the only debate I think is St. Mary's or Arizona State for the last spot. In the end, I went with Arizona State based on their non-conference wins over Xavier and Kansas and St. Mary's poor non-conf SOS.

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Villanova

1 Kansas

1 Xavier

2 North Carolina

2 Duke

2 Cincinnati

2 Purdue

3 Michigan State

3 Tennessee

3 Michigan

3 Auburn

4 West Virginia

4 Gonzaga

4 Arizona

4 Wichita State

5 Texas Tech

5 Kentucky

5 Clemson

5 Ohio State

6 Houston

6 Florida

6 TCU

6 Miami (Fla.)

7 Arkansas

7 Texas A&M

7 Seton Hall

7 Nevada

8 Rhode Island

8 Missouri

8 Creighton

8 Kansas State

9 Alabama

9 Providence

9 Florida State

9 Virginia Tech

10 North Carolina State

10 St. Bonaventure

10 Ucla

10 Butler

11 Oklahoma

11 Southern California

11 Texas

11 Arizona State

11 Loyola-Chicago

11 New Mexico State

12 Buffalo

12 South Dakota State

12 Davidson

12 San Diego State

13 Murray State

13 College of Charleston

13 Marshall

13 NC-Greensboro

14 Montana

14 Bucknell

14 Wright State

14 Lipscomb

15 Maryland-Baltimore County

15 Stephen F. Austin

15 Iona

15 Pennsylvania

16 Georgia State

16 Cal State Fullerton

16 Radford

16 North Carolina Central

16 LIU-Brooklyn

16 Texas Southern

Latest bracket update through Sunday now that the Regular Season is over and the 1st weekend of Conference Tournaments are behind us.

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Xavier

1 Villanova

1 Kansas

2 Duke

2 North Carolina

2 Cincinnati

2 Auburn

3 Purdue

3 Michigan State

3 Tennessee

3 Michigan

4 Wichita State

4 Arizona

4 Texas Tech

4 Clemson

5 West Virginia

5 Ohio State

5 Gonzaga

5 Kentucky

6 Houston

6 Florida

6 TCU

6 Nevada

7 Miami (Fla.)

7 Texas A&M

7 Seton Hall

7 Arkansas

8 Rhode Island

8 Missouri

8 Oklahoma

8 Florida State

9 Creighton

9 Virginia Tech

9 Arizona State

9 North Carolina State

10 St. Bonaventure

10 Alabama

10 Kansas State

10 St. Mary's

11 Ucla

11 Providence

11 Southern California

11 Butler

11 Middle Tennessee

12 Texas

12 Marquette

12 Loyola-Chicago

12 New Mexico State

12 Buffalo

13 Murray State

13 South Dakota State

13 Vermont

13 Louisiana-Lafayette

14 College of Charleston

14 NC-Greensboro

14 Bucknell

14 California Davis

15 Montana

15 Wagner

15 Wright State

15 Iona

16 Lipscomb

16 Pennsylvania

16 Radford

16 Hampton

16 Southeastern Louisiana

16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Welcome to my 1st bracket of March (depending on your time zone as it is 1:30am CST)

Full Seed List:

Mine

1 Virginia

1 Villanova

1 Xavier

1 Kansas

2 Michigan State

2 Duke

2 North Carolina

2 Purdue

3 Auburn

3 Cincinnati

3 Tennessee

3 Clemson

4 Texas Tech

4 Arizona

4 Ohio State

4 West Virginia

5 Wichita State

5 Kentucky

5 Gonzaga

5 Rhode Island

6 Michigan

6 Houston

6 TCU

6 Nevada

7 Florida

7 Seton Hall

7 Missouri

7 Texas A&M

8 Miami (Fla.)

8 Arkansas

8 Creighton

8 Arizona State

9 Oklahoma

9 Florida State

9 Virginia Tech

9 Butler

10 Alabama

10 St. Mary's

10 North Carolina State

10 St. Bonaventure

11 Southern California

11 Kansas State

11 Providence

11 Louisville

11 Middle Tennessee

12 Baylor

12 Ucla

12 Loyola-Chicago

12 Buffalo

12 New Mexico State

13 Louisiana-Lafayette

13 Vermont

13 South Dakota State

13 College of Charleston

14 Rider

14 Murray State

14 Bucknell

14 NC-Greensboro

15 Montana

15 Wagner

15 Northern Kentucky

15 NC-Asheville

16 California Irvine

16 Pennsylvania

16 Florida Gulf Coast

16 North Carolina A&T

16 Nicholls State

16 Southern

 

Here is my bracket updated prior to Thursday's games:

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Villanova

1 Xavier

1 Kansas

2 Michigan State

2 Duke

2 Purdue

2 Auburn

3 North Carolina

3 Cincinnati

3 Tennessee

3 Arizona

4 Texas Tech

4 Clemson

4 Ohio State

4 West Virginia

5 Kentucky

5 Wichita State

5 Gonzaga

5 Rhode Island

6 Houston

6 Michigan

6 Arizona State

6 Missouri

7 Nevada

7 Florida State

7 Texas A&M

7 Alabama

8 Creighton

8 Miami (Fla.)

8 Oklahoma

8 Butler

9 TCU

9 St. Mary's

9 Seton Hall

9 Florida

10 Arkansas

10 Virginia Tech

10 Providence

10 St. Bonaventure

11 North Carolina State

11 Southern California

11 Kansas State

11 Syracuse

11 Middle Tennessee

12 Texas

12 UCLA

12 Loyola-Chicago

12 Buffalo

12 New Mexico State

13 Louisiana-Lafayette

13 Vermont

13 College of Charleston

13 South Dakota State

14 Rider

14 Murray State

14 E. Tennessee State

14 Bucknell

15 Santa Barbara

15 Montana

15 Wright State

15 Wagner

16 NC-Asheville

16 Pennsylvania

16 Florida Gulf Coast

16 North Carolina A&T

16 Nicholls State

16 Southern

 

Bracket updated through Thursday's games.

Last Four Out: St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Utah, Boise State

Full seed list:

1 Virginia

1 Xavier

1 Villanova

1 Auburn

2 Purdue

2 Kansas

2 Duke

2 Texas Tech

3 Michigan State

3 Cincinnati

3 Clemson

3 North Carolina

4 Ohio State

4 Tennessee

4 Arizona

4 West Virginia

5 Gonzaga

5 Oklahoma

5 Kentucky

5 Rhode Island

6 Miami (Fla.)

6 Creighton

6 St. Mary's

6 Texas A&M

7 Michigan

7 Florida State

7 Seton Hall

7 Wichita State

8 Nevada

8 Butler

8 Providence

8 Arizona State

9 Alabama

9 Missouri

9 Florida

9 Arkansas

10 Houston

10 Texas

10 Louisville

10 TCU

11 UCLA

11 Southern California

11 Virginia Tech

11 Kansas State

11 Washington

11 North Carolina State

12 Middle Tennessee

12 New Mexico State

12 Buffalo

12 Loyola-Chicago

13 Vermont

13 E. Tennessee State

13 Louisiana-Lafayette

13 South Dakota State

14 College of Charleston

14 Rider

14 Murray State

14 Montana

15 Santa Barbara

15 Bucknell

15 Northern Kentucky

15 Wagner

16 NC-Asheville

16 Florida Gulf Coast

16 Pennsylvania

16 Savannah State

16 Nicholls State

16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff

With the Committee coming out with their first rankings this weekend (Top 16) I am publishing my first bracket of the year.

Last Four Out: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Utah

Full Seed List:

1 Virginia

1 Villanova

1 Purdue

1 Xavier

2 Kansas

2 Duke

2 Auburn

2 Clemson

3 Cincinnati

3 Texas Tech

3 Tennessee

3 North Carolina

4 Ohio State

4 Oklahoma

4 Michigan State

4 Arizona

5 Kentucky

5 West Virginia

5 Seton Hall

5 Miami (Fla.)

6 Rhode Island

6 Creighton

6 St. Mary's

6 Gonzaga

7 Texas A&M

7 Butler

7 Florida State

7 Michigan

8 Alabama

8 Arizona State

8 Florida

8 Providence

9 Texas

9 Wichita State

9 Missouri

9 Southern California

10 Nevada

10 Arkansas

10 TCU

10 Houston

11 Washington

11 Syracuse

11 UCLA

11 Boise State

11 Louisville

11 Kansas State

12 Middle Tennessee

12 New Mexico State

12 Buffalo

12 Loyola-Chicago

13 Vermont

13 E. Tennessee State

13 Louisiana-Lafayette

13 South Dakota State

14 College of Charleston

14 Montana

14 Murray State

14 Rider

15 Wright State

15 Santa Barbara

15 Bucknell

15 Wagner

16 NC-Asheville

16 Florida Gulf Coast

16 Pennsylvania

16 North Carolina A&T

16 Nicholls State

16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Here is the bracket as it stands prior to Thursday's games. I am out in Vegas for the MW and Pac-12 tournaments this weekend so this may be the penultimate bracket, with the final one to come on Sunday. Feel free to leave comments and I will try to reply before Sunday. Note: Cal and Kansas State were swapped seed lines to avoid a potential 4th matchup between Baylor and Kansas State in the Sweet 16

1. Kansas

1. Villanova

1. North Carolina

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

2. Louisville

2. Oregon

2. Kentucky

3. UCLA

3. Florida

3. Duke

3. Butler

4. Arizona

4. Florida State

4. Purdue

4. Cincinnati

5. West Virginia

5. Virginia

5. Notre Dame

5. Minnesota

6. Southern Methodist

6. Maryland

6. South Carolina

6. Wisconsin

7. St. Mary's

7. Creighton

7. Iowa State

7. Dayton

8. Miami (Fla.)

8. Oklahoma State

8. Virginia Tech

8. Arkansas

9. Virginia Commonwealth

9. Northwestern

9. Michigan

9. Seton Hall

10. Marquette

10. Xavier

10. Southern California

10. Wichita State

11. Michigan State

11. Middle Tennessee

11. Providence

11. Wake Forest

11. California

12. Kansas State

12. Rhode Island

12. Nevada

12. NC-Wilmington

12. Texas-Arlington

13. Vermont

13. Princeton

13. Akron

13. E. Tennessee State

14. Winthrop

14. Bucknell

14. Iona

14. Cal State Bakersfield

15. Florida Gulf Coast

15. South Dakota State

15. North Dakota

15. Northern Kentucky

16. Texas Southern

16. Tennessee-Martin

16. California Irvine

16. Mount St. Mary's

16. New Orleans

16. North Carolina Central

Bracket based on games through 3/3/17:

1. Kansas

1. Villanova

1. North Carolina

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

2. Oregon

2. Kentucky

2. UCLA

3. Butler

3. Louisville

3. Florida

3. Duke

4. Arizona

4. Florida State

4. Cincinnati

4. Purdue

5. West Virginia

5. Notre Dame

5. Virginia

5. Minnesota

6. South Carolina

6. Southern Methodist

6. St. Mary's

6. Maryland

7. Dayton

7. Creighton

7. Iowa State

7. Wisconsin

8. Arkansas

8. Miami (Fla.)

8. Oklahoma State

8. Virginia Tech

9. Virginia Commonwealth

9. Xavier

9. Northwestern

9. Michigan

10. Southern California

10. Seton Hall

10. Michigan State

10. Marquette

11. Wichita State

11. Middle Tennessee

11. Providence

11. Kansas State

11. Syracuse

11. California

12. Illinois State

12. Nevada

12. NC-Wilmington

12. Texas-Arlington

13. Monmouth

13. Vermont

13. Princeton

13. Akron

14. E. Tennessee State

14. Winthrop

14. Bucknell

14. Cal State Bakersfield

15. Florida Gulf Coast

15. Oakland

15. South Dakota

15. Eastern Washington

16. Texas Southern

16. Tennessee-Martin

16. California Irvine

16. Mount St. Mary's

16. New Orleans

16. North Carolina Central